AbbVie (ABBV) Goldman Sachs 45th Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Business performance and growth outlook

• Ex-Humira platform now generates over 80% of revenue, growing in the mid-teens and enabling a return to revenue growth just one year after U.S. Humira LOE, with robust growth expected above industry average in 2025 and high single-digit CAGR through the decade.

• Growth priorities include maximizing Skyrizi and Rinvoq, expanding indications, and advancing combination therapies, with continued leadership in immunology and strong momentum in neuroscience and migraine portfolios.

• The Cerevel acquisition is on track to close mid-year, adding promising assets in psychiatry and Parkinson’s, while oncology and eye care pipelines show significant expansion opportunities.

• Aesthetics remains a resilient business, targeting over $9 billion in revenue by 2029, with innovation and market leadership despite new competitors.

• The company is positioned for industry leadership, enabling sustained investment in growth and business development for the next decade.

Humira transition and immunology portfolio dynamics

• 2023 saw less U.S. volume erosion than expected and international performance was strong due to timing, with payer contracts providing good visibility for 2024 and 2025.

• CVS formulary changes and biosimilar competition were anticipated in guidance, with about 20% of switching moving to new mechanisms like Skyrizi and Rinvoq.

• Pricing in immunology is stable with low single-digit concessions, and the migration from first-generation biologics to advanced therapies is consistent.

• Head-to-head trials have clarified the value of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, supporting strong volume growth and rapid access for new indications.

• The Humira revenue trough is expected in 2024, with further step-downs in 2025 and stabilization by 2026, after which Humira will no longer be a headwind to growth.

Growth drivers and innovation strategy

• Skyrizi and Rinvoq show strong momentum across indications, with high dynamic capture rates and significant headroom for growth, especially in IBD.

• Strategic use of head-to-head trials accelerates prescriber clarity and payer positioning, exemplified by the Skyrizi vs. Stelara data in IBD.

• Business development focuses on acquiring novel mechanisms, especially those orthogonal to existing assets, to enable future combination therapies and raise standards of care.

• Recent deals, such as Landos, add unique assets like NX-13, which may be combined with Rinvoq for gut-restricted, anti-inflammatory effects in IBD.

• Ongoing platform studies will explore Skyrizi as a backbone for biologic combinations, aiming for higher remission rates in IBD and other indications.