ABN AMRO Bank (ABN) Barclays 22nd Annual Global Financial Services Conference summary

Policy and regulatory environment

• Anticipates confirmation of rollback on share buyback tax proposals, with banking tax remaining unchanged and already increased by 30% at the start of the year.

• Business environment debates may lead to more favorable conditions for corporates and expats.

• Dutch government continues gradual reduction of its ownership stake, with expectations for further decreases.

Mortgage market and balance sheet trends

• Mortgage market volume rose 23-24% year-on-year, driven by record house prices and restricted supply.

• Shift from non-bank lenders to banks is expected to persist if interest rates remain stable.

• Market share in new mortgage production increased to 20%, maintaining leadership through dynamic pricing and operational improvements.

Net interest income (NII) and revenue outlook

• Upgraded FY 2024 NII guidance due to higher rate curve; supportive trends expected in H2.

• NII sensitivity: 10bps change in savings rates impacts NII by ~€100 million.

• Replicating portfolio (40-45% <1 year) may shift from tailwind to slight headwind as rates fall, with longer durations providing gradual support.

• Fee income targeted to grow 3-5% annually; NII changes expected to be gradual.