ADNOC Gas (ADNOCGAS) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 net income reached $1.27 billion, up 7% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations and Bloomberg consensus by 17%.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $2.16 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year.

• Performance driven by strong domestic gas demand, efficient management of planned shutdowns, and favorable LNG/LPG pricing.

• Sales volume grew 1% year-over-year despite maintenance, reflecting operational resilience.

• Company targets over 40% EBITDA growth by 2029 versus 2023, assuming $70/bbl oil and Ruwais LNG consolidation.

Financial highlights

• Revenue for Q1 2025 was $6.1 billion, up 1% year-over-year and sequentially.

• Net income margin improved to 20.8%, up 107bps year-over-year.

• Domestic Gas net income margin rose to $1.09/mmbtu, up 3% year-over-year.

• Free cash flow excluding working capital rose 6% to $1.2 billion compared to Q1 2024.

• CAPEX for Q1 2025 was $555 million, up 43% year-over-year to support growth.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 updated sales volume guidance: 2,340–2,370 TBTU for Domestic Gas, 965–975 TBTU for Exports & Traded Liquids, 250–260 TBTU for LNG JV Products.

• Net profit unit margin guidance for 2025: Domestic Gas $1.04–1.06/mmbtu, Exports & Traded Liquids $1.35–1.50/mmbtu, LNG JV $1.60–1.70/mmbtu.

• 2025 CAPEX guidance updated to ~$3 billion, with no impact to growth projects.

• Project implementation remains on track, with a final investment decision on the Rich Gas Development project expected in 2025.

• Planned shutdowns in 2025 will mostly affect LNG and ETL segments.