African Rainbow Minerals (ARI) H1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Headline earnings for 1H F2025 declined by 49% to R1.52 billion (R7.75/share), with an interim dividend of R4.50/share declared, down from R9.00/share in 1H F2024; net cash position at 31 December 2024 was R6.1 billion, down from R7.2 billion at the end of F2024.

• Basic earnings rose 15% to R1,394 million, mainly due to lower impairments; capital expenditure reduced to R2.14 billion, mainly due to lower spend at Two Rivers and Bokoni.

• Financial position remains robust despite lower earnings and cash generation.

• Safety performance deteriorated: LTIFR up 33% to 0.32; one fatality at Modikwa Platinum Mine.

Financial highlights

• Headline earnings dropped 49% year-over-year to R1.52 billion; basic earnings include R136 million in impairments after tax.

• Dividends received from Assmang fell 17% to R2.5 billion; no distributions from ARM Coal (previously R153 million).

• Net cash to equity ratio decreased to 10.7% from 12.4% at June 2024; total equity at 31 December 2024 was R56.8 billion.

• Total segmental capital expenditure for 1H F2025 was R2.14 billion, down 51% from R4.36 billion in 1H F2024.

• EBITDA for the period was R70 million (1H F2024: R781 million).

Outlook and guidance

• Major expansion capital projects at Bokoni Mine deferred to preserve cash amid weak PGM prices; focus on minimising cash losses and maintaining operational flexibility.

• Global growth projected at 3.3% for 2025/2026; iron ore prices expected to decline due to supply growth and weaker Chinese demand; PGM prices remain weak short-term but medium/long-term outlook is positive.

• Coal consumption forecast to fall; ARM will not invest in new coal assets and will run existing mines to end of life.

• Ongoing collaboration with Transnet and industry partners to address logistics constraints in iron ore and manganese.

• Focus remains on productivity, cost-saving, and capital allocation to preserve cash amid challenging commodity markets.