Agilyx (AGLX) Pareto Securities' 33rd Annual Energy Conference presentation summary

Strategic positioning and market overview

• Established in 2004, the company operates across the European recycling value chain, addressing the plastic waste crisis and leveraging a fragmented market landscape.

• Recent acquisitions, including a majority stake in Green Dot Global, have expanded capacity and market reach, positioning the group to benefit from EU regulatory changes.

• The business is structured around two main platforms: Green Dot (core operations, EPR, mechanical recycling) and arcLABS (R&D, analytics, chemical recycling technology).

• Six integrated capabilities span EPR, mechanical and chemical recycling, SaaS compliance, and R&D, providing unique value chain exposure.

Market dynamics and regulatory drivers

• European recyclers have faced low utilization and shrinking capacity due to exports, cheap virgin resins, and rising energy costs.

• EU legislation, including the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), mandates all packaging to be recyclable by 2030 and bans plastic waste exports to non-OECD countries.

• Recycled content targets will increase from 2030, with further jumps by 2040, driving demand for recycled plastics.

• Demand for recycled plastic is expected to more than double by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, outpacing current capacity.

Operational performance and financials

• Green Dot’s EPR segment serves over 90,000 customers, generating stable cash flow and gross profit between EUR 44–68 million annually.

• Revenue and EBITDA are forecast to grow significantly, with EBITDA expected to rise from EUR 11 million in 2025 to EUR 50 million by 2028, driven by acquisitions and capacity expansion.

• H1 2026 consolidated revenue reached EUR 85.1 million, with Green Dot contributing EUR 2.7 million to EBITDA; Agilyx recorded a EUR 4.6 million loss including one-off costs.

• Cash positions are strong, with EUR 54.5 million at group level and EUR 44.9 million at Green Dot as of mid-2026.