AGL Energy (AGL) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Underlying profit after tax rose 189% year-over-year to AUD 812 million, driven by higher wholesale electricity prices, improved fleet availability, and strong customer growth.

• Statutory profit after tax was $711 million, including a negative fair value movement of $53 million and significant items of $103 million.

• Development pipeline nearly doubled to 6.2 GW since September 2022, with acquisitions of Firm Power and Terrain Solar expanding battery and renewable options.

• Customer base grew by 211,000 to 4.5 million services, with strong additions in energy, telecommunications, and Netflix services, and maintained a positive Net Promoter Score.

• Advanced digital transformation and ESG initiatives, including a strategic partnership and equity investment in Kaluza, and progress on gender equality and First Nations procurement.

Financial highlights

• Underlying EBITDA rose 63% to $2,216 million; underlying NPAT up 189% to $812 million.

• Operating free cash flow increased to AUD 1.4 billion, with net cash from operating activities (excluding bill relief prepayment) at $1,859 million.

• Net debt reduced by $942 million, with liquidity position at $1.7 billion and improved gearing metrics.

• Total FY24 dividend was AUD 0.61 per share (50% payout ratio), with a final unfranked dividend of 35 cents per share.

• Return on equity increased by 10 percentage points to 14.9%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance: $1,870–$2,170 million; underlying NPAT: $530–$730 million.

• Earnings expected to decrease in FY25 due to lower wholesale electricity prices, margin compression, and increased depreciation/amortisation.

• Operating costs projected to remain flat, with productivity gains offsetting growth and inflation.

• Dividend payout policy remains at 50%-75% of underlying NPAT, with partially franked dividends from FY25 interim dividend.

• Strategic targets for FY27 on track, including further improvements in fleet availability and digital customer growth.