AGL Energy (AGL) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong financial and operational performance in FY24, with underlying profit after tax of AUD 812 million, up 189% year-over-year, and underlying EBITDA up 63%, driven by higher wholesale electricity prices, improved fleet availability, and customer growth.

• Advanced decarbonisation strategy, nearly doubling the development pipeline to 6.2 GW, with acquisitions of Firm Power and Terrain Solar, and significant progress in battery portfolio expansion.

• Strategic partnership and 20% equity investment in Kaluza to drive retail transformation and digital customer experience, targeting AUD 70–90 million annual pre-tax savings from FY29.

• Expanded Customer Support Package to $90 million to address cost-of-living pressures, with $63 million delivered in FY24.

• Maintained focus on ESG, reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 23% against FY19 baseline and progressing gender equality and First Nations procurement targets.

Financial highlights

• Underlying profit after tax reached AUD 812 million, a 189% increase from the prior year; underlying EBITDA up 63% to $2,216 million.

• Statutory NPAT of $711 million; operating free cash flow up 169% to $1,355 million, with cash and undrawn committed debt facilities totaling $1,701 million at June 30, 2024.

• Total dividend for FY24 was AUD 0.61 per share, up 97% year-over-year, with a 50% payout ratio.

• Net debt reduced by AUD 942 million to $1.8 billion, supported by strong cash generation and no major refinancing required until FY26.

• Return on equity increased to 14.9%, and return on capital invested to 13.5%.

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance set between $1,870 and $2,170 million; underlying NPAT guidance between $530 and $730 million, reflecting expected earnings decrease due to lower wholesale prices and margin compression.

• Operating costs projected to remain broadly flat, with higher depreciation and amortization anticipated.

• Dividend policy remains at 50%-75% of underlying NPAT, with intention to begin paying partially franked dividends from FY25 interim dividend.

• Sustaining capital spend on thermal assets to remain in the AUD 400–500 million range annually.

• Guidance subject to regulatory, trading, and plant availability risks.