Alcoa (AA) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 revenue was $3.704B; net income attributable was $483M, diluted EPS was $1.81, and adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $789M.

• Aluminum production rose for a sixth consecutive quarter; six YTD production records were achieved, the Alumar restart was completed, and Pinjarra performance recovered.

• South32 shareholders approved the AliGroup acquisition on October 15; closing is targeted for H1 2027, subject to approvals and other conditions.

Financial highlights

• Q3 revenue was $3.704B, down 7% sequentially; net income attributable was $483M versus $407M in Q2, while adjusted net income was $485M versus $562M.

• Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items was $789M, down $112M sequentially; lower aluminum prices and shipments offset higher production costs performance and alumina prices.

• Cash from operations was $643M and free cash flow was $472M; cash ended Q3 at $4.408B, including $2.6B of acquisition financing proceeds.

• Realized primary aluminum price was $4,527/mt, down $225 sequentially; realized alumina price was $353/mt, up $19.

• Nine-month sales were $10.863B, operating cash flow was $1.072B, and capital expenditures were $476M.

Outlook and guidance

• FY26 production and shipment guidance remains 9.5–9.6M and 11.5–11.6M metric tons for Alumina, and 2.4–2.6M and 2.6–2.8M metric tons for Aluminum.

• Q4 production and shipments are expected to rise in both segments; Alumina performance is expected to remain consistent with Q3, with higher shipments offset by planned maintenance.

• Q4 Aluminum adjusted EBITDA is expected to face ~$30M of unfavorable impacts from raw material costs and planned maintenance; Alumina costs in Aluminum are also expected to be ~$30M unfavorable.

• FY26 sustaining capex is estimated at ~$685M, return-seeking capex at ~$65M, and environmental/ARO payments at $360M; FY interest expense is expected at ~$185M.

• Q4 operational tax expense is projected at $65M–$75M; other income is expected to increase ~$20M, and working capital is expected to release at least 10 days, subject to year-end pricing.