Alcoa (AA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong financial and operational performance in Q4 and full year 2025, with record production at five smelters and one refinery, improved safety metrics, and momentum into 2026.

• Advanced strategic initiatives, including progress on remediation site monetization, ELYSIS inert anode technology commercialization, and Western Australia mine approvals.

• San Ciprián smelter restart reached 65% capacity by year-end, with full restart expected in H1 2026; new JV formed to support the complex.

• Completed sale of Ma'aden JV interest, favorable Australian tax resolution, and permanently closed Kwinana refinery.

• Safety incident rates improved year-over-year, with continued focus on operational excellence and transformation asset monetization.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 revenue rose 15% sequentially to $3.4B; full year revenue reached $12.8B, up 8% YoY.

• Q4 net income was $226M ($0.85/share); adjusted net income was $335M ($1.26/share); FY25 net income was $1.2B ($4.42/share), adjusted net income $1.0B ($3.77/share).

• Adjusted EBITDA was $546M in Q4 (up $276M sequentially) and $2.0B for the year (up 25% YoY).

• Free cash flow for 2025 was $594M, with Q4 free cash flow at $294M; cash balance at year-end was $1.6B; adjusted net debt at $1.5B.

• Returned $105M to shareholders via dividends in 2025; repaid $141M of 2027 notes.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 alumina production expected at 9.7–9.9M mt; shipments at 11.8–12.0M mt; aluminum production forecast at 2.4–2.6M mt; shipments at 2.6–2.8M mt.

• 2026 capital expenditures estimated at $750M, with $675M sustaining and $75M return-seeking.

• Environmental and ARO spending to rise to $325M in 2026, mainly for Kwinana remediation.

• Q1 2026 expected to see unfavorable segment performance: alumina down ~$30M, aluminum down ~$70M due to non-recurrence of CO2 credits and restart costs.

• Transformation EBITDA impact expected to be $(100)M in FY26.