Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 FY2024 shipping volume was 451,000 tons, down 21.1% year-over-year, with steel revenue at $568 million and net income of $28 million, reversing a prior-year loss.

• Full-year FY2024 shipments totaled 2,085,465 tons, up 4.1% year-over-year; steel revenue was $2,545.3 million, nearly flat year-over-year; net income was $105.2 million, down from $298.5 million.

• Plate mill modernization is substantially complete, with ramp-up underway and annual capacity targeted at 650,000 tons.

• EAF project is progressing on schedule and budget, with commissioning expected by late 2024 and full ramp-up in 2025; cumulative investment reached $563 million.

• Strategic exit from the wide coil market is underway to focus on higher-margin plate products.

Financial highlights

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA was $41.5 million (6.7% margin); Q4 net sales realization was $1,260/ton, up 18.2% year-over-year; cost per ton was $1,091, up 17%.

• Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $313 million (11.2% margin), down from $452 million (16.3%) in FY2023; net sales realization averaged $1,220/ton, down 4.1%; cost per ton was $1,018, up 1%.

• Q4 cash from operations was $121.2 million; full-year cash from operations was $294.4 million, up from $177.3 million.

• Q4 net income margin was 4.5%; full-year net income margin was 3.8%.

• Q4 Adjusted EBITDA per ton was $92; full-year Adjusted EBITDA per ton was $149.9.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA expected between $30–40 million; shipments projected at 500,000–510,000 tons.

• Plate mill production expected to reach 90,000 tons in the next quarter, with annual run rate capacity targeted at over 650,000 tons.

• EAF commissioning to begin late 2024, with ramp-up through 2025; project budget remains $825–$875 million.

• Normalized quarterly shipment volume expected to be 550,000 tons as EAF stabilizes.

• Modest improvement in steel prices anticipated, but market conditions remain challenging with ongoing inflationary pressures.