ALPEK (ALPEKA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 was marked by global overcapacity, especially in polyester, leading to a 30% year-over-year decline in comparable EBITDA to $489 million, slightly below guidance.

• Operating free cash flow improved 57% year-over-year to $163 million, reflecting disciplined CAPEX and working capital management.

• Strategic priorities included core business optimization, financial flexibility, growth in high-margin and specialty products, and expansion into energy commercialization.

• The spinoff and merger with Controladora Alpek was completed, establishing a streamlined, independent, 100% free float entity.

• Operations at the Reading recycling facility will be suspended in 2Q26, with capacity relocated to Indiana for improved competitiveness.

Financial highlights

• Polyester segment volume fell 10% year-over-year and sequentially in 4Q25, with EBITDA down 53% sequentially and 59% year-over-year due to low margins and ocean freights.

• Plastics and chemicals segment volume decreased 7% year-over-year, but EBITDA rose 17% sequentially, though still 15–50% lower year-over-year.

• 4Q25 comparable EBITDA was $100 million, down 27% sequentially and 40% year-over-year; full-year comparable EBITDA was $489 million, down 30% year-over-year.

• Annual CapEx reached $170 million in 2025, with $51 million in Q4, focused on maintenance and strategic projects; 2026 CapEx is guided at $130 million.

• Net debt ended at $1.84 billion, flat sequentially but $44 million lower year-over-year; leverage at 4.4x net debt/EBITDA, with pro forma leverage at 3.1x excluding extraordinary costs.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance projects comparable EBITDA of $450–$500 million, volume of 4.5 million tons, CapEx of $130 million, and operating free cash flow of $100–$150 million.

• Polyester segment expected to stabilize, while plastics and chemicals face headwinds from global oversupply and soft demand.

• Leverage targeted to stabilize at 3.5x, with a long-term goal of 2.5x by 2027.

• Upside of ~$50 million to EBITDA possible if PET margins, asset sales, and tariffs improve.

• Emerging business segment (energy commercialization) aims to double EBITDA contribution over three years, with 2026 expected in the $20 million range.