Ampol (ALD) H1 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Statutory NPAT rose to AUD 235 million, nearly tripling year-on-year, driven by lower inventory losses and significant items gains, despite a 1.1% revenue decline to AUD 18,243.7 million and softer refining and international sales.

• ARCOP/RCOP EBITDA was AUD 737 million, down 7.7% year-on-year, with ARCOP/RCOP EBIT at AUD 502 million, reflecting resilience in retail and New Zealand segments amid challenging conditions.

• Total fuel sales were 13.25 billion litres, down 6.5% year-on-year, mainly due to lower international spot sales, while Australian wholesale volumes grew 1%.

• Interim dividend of AUD 0.60 per share declared, fully franked, with a 61% payout ratio of ARCOP/RCOP NPAT.

• Declared FID for the Lytton Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels Project; continued rollout of public EV charging networks in Australia and New Zealand.

Financial highlights

• Statutory NPAT was AUD 235 million, up from AUD 79 million in 1H 2023, aided by a significant items gain and reduced inventory losses.

• ARCOP/RCOP EBITDA: AUD 737 million; ARCOP/RCOP EBIT: AUD 502 million; RCOP NPAT (excl. significant items) fell 29.1% to AUD 233.7 million.

• Net borrowings at period end were AUD 2.56 billion; leverage at 1.9x EBITDA (12-month look back).

• Net capital expenditure for 1H 2024 was AUD 185 million; operating cash flow for the half was AUD 474 million.

• Basic EPS rose to 98.7c from 33.2c; RCOP EPS (excl. significant items) was 98.1c, down from 138.3c.

Outlook and guidance

• Net capex for 2024 expected at AUD 600 million, skewed to the second half, including the Lytton Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels Project and refinery turnaround.

• Capex in 2025 anticipated to remain elevated before normalizing to AUD 400-450 million from 2026.

• Lytton refinery production expected to normalize by end of August after Turnaround and Inspection.

• Fuels & Infrastructure Australia projected to maintain strong fuel sales, annualizing over 15 billion litres, driven by robust diesel demand.

• Medium-term outlook supported by healthy global demand, refinery utilization, and sector consolidation opportunities.