Antero Resources (AR) Investor presentation summary

Market outlook and demand drivers

• Storage levels are projected to fall below the 5-year average in the second half of 2025, driven by increasing LNG demand and power burn, leading to an undersupplied market.

• U.S. natural gas demand is expected to grow by over 30 Bcf/d by 2030, with more than 24 Bcf/d from LNG exports and pipelines to Mexico, and 7 Bcf/d from higher electricity demand, especially from data centers and electrification.

• Demand growth is forecast to significantly outpace supply growth through 2026, resulting in an expected supply shortfall of over 5 Bcf/d by year-end 2026.

• U.S. horizontal natural gas rigs remain at low levels, with major basins like Haynesville below maintenance production levels, contributing to stalled production.

LNG and export trends

• U.S. LNG export capacity is set to increase by 22 Bcf/d by 2030, reaching a total of 37.5 Bcf/d, with several major projects coming online between 2025 and 2030.

• Mexico exports are forecast to rise by 1.5 Bcf/d by year-end 2026, driven by increased power burn demand.

• The second wave of LNG start-ups, such as Venture Global Plaquemines, is ramping up faster than expected, supporting higher Gulf basis pricing.

Data center and power generation impact

• Data center buildouts and new natural gas-fired power plants are fueling robust power demand growth, with significant investments announced in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

• Updated forecasts show U.S. data center natural gas demand could reach more than 12 Bcf/d by 2030, with 70% of AI data center buildout powered by gas.

• Regional power generation and datacenter projects under construction or awaiting FID represent over 3.1 Bcf/d of new demand between 2026 and 2030.