Antofagasta (ANTO) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Delivered strong 2024 results with 664kt copper production at a net cash cost of $1.64/lb, rising margins, robust revenue and EBITDA growth, and a solid balance sheet supporting both dividends and investment in growth projects.

• Maintained a fatality-free safety record and achieved record performance in safety indicators, including a 38-40% reduction in high potential incidents.

• Sustainability remains central, with progress in decarbonization, water management, and community engagement.

• Major growth phase initiated in 2024, with projects on track and on budget, and higher copper production expected in 2025 (guidance: 660-700kt at $1.45-1.65/lb cash cost).

• Final dividend of $0.235 per share (23.5c/share) proposed, totaling $0.314 per share for 2024, representing a 50% payout ratio.

Financial highlights

• Revenue grew by 5% year-over-year to $6.6bn, and EBITDA rose 11% to $3.4bn, with margins increasing by 300 basis points to 52%.

• Net debt/EBITDA remained below 0.5x, reflecting a strong balance sheet.

• Net earnings decreased 13% YoY to $710m, impacted by exceptional items.

• Achieved $248 million in cost savings through productivity and efficiency initiatives.

• Capex was $2.4bn in 2024, with $3.9bn guidance for 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Positioned for material growth with projects initiated in 2024 and a well-funded development pipeline.

• 2025 copper production guidance: 660-700kt at net cash cost of $1.45-1.65/lb.

• Production expected to ramp up towards 900,000 tons by the end of the decade, driven by higher grades at Los Pelambres and Centinela expansion.

• Copper market outlook remains positive, with 2% annual consumption growth and a 1% annual supply decline forecast for 2024-2034, leading to a projected supply gap.

• CapEx guidance for 2025 is $3.9 billion (100% basis), focused on Centinela and Los Pelambres projects.