Aperam S.A. (APAM) Q4 2025 (Q&A) earnings summary

Executive summary

• Order books in Europe are recovering in Q1 2026 due to seasonal effects, but structural demand remains weak.

• Q4 2025 delivered solid results with accelerated deleveraging and strong cash generation, despite a trough market and challenging conditions in Europe.

• Achieved stable shipments of 2,287 thousand tonnes in 2025, but profitability and net income declined sharply due to pricing pressure and low demand.

• Leadership Journey® Phase 5 delivered EUR 195 million in gains, nearly completing the three-year plan in two years; Phase 6 launched with a EUR 150 million target for 2026–2028.

• Universal Stainless acquisition closed in January 2025, with expected annual synergies of EUR 27 million over five years.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 sales were EUR 1,358 million, down 4% sequentially and 8% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was EUR 67 million, down 9% sequentially and 42% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 339 million, down 4.8% year-over-year, with a margin of 5.6%.

• EBITDA guidance for Q1 2026 is higher than Q4 2025, with a EUR 100 million quarterly run rate expected in H1 2026.

• Net financial debt reduced to EUR 978 million at year-end 2025, a 6% sequential decrease, but up from EUR 544 million in 2024.

• Free cash flow before dividend was EUR 248 million in 2025, but after the Universal acquisition, it was EUR (167) million.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 EBITDA and shipments are expected to increase sequentially, driven by higher seasonal volumes in Europe.

• Normalized EBITDA guidance is EUR 700 million–EUR 800 million, reflecting a conservative outlook due to CBAM and trade defense uncertainties.

• Annual guidance is limited due to short order book visibility and market variables; only H1 guidance provided.

• FY 2026 capex guidance is EUR 200 million; base dividend to remain stable at EUR 2.00/share (~EUR 145 million).

• Net financial debt is expected to rise in Q1 2026 due to seasonally higher working capital needs.