Aperam S.A. (APAM) Q4 2025 (Q&A) earnings summary

Executive summary

• Order books in Europe are recovering in Q1 2026, attributed to seasonal factors, but no structural demand improvement is evident.

• Q4 2025 saw solid results despite a trough market, with accelerated deleveraging and strong cash generation from working capital management.

• Achieved stable shipments of 2,287 thousand tonnes in 2025, with a slight decrease in sales and profitability amid a weak macro environment.

• No abnormal shifts in buyer behavior; import patterns and consumption remain at typical seasonal levels.

• Leadership Journey® Phase 5 delivered EUR 195 million in gains, reaching the target one year ahead of schedule; Phase 6 launched with a EUR 150 million target for 2026–2028.

Financial highlights

• Normalized EBITDA guidance is set at €700–800 million, reflecting a more conservative floor due to margin compression and pending trade defense impacts.

• Q4 2025 sales were EUR 1,358m, down 4% sequentially and 8% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was EUR 339 million, down 4.8% year-over-year, mainly due to pricing pressure and low demand in Europe.

• Net financial debt reduced to EUR 978m at year-end 2025, a 6% sequential decrease, driven by strong operating cash flow.

• Free cash flow before dividend was EUR 248 million, but after the Universal acquisition, it was EUR (167) million.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 EBITDA expected to be higher than Q4 2025, with a €100 million quarterly run rate for H1 2026, ramping up in Q2.

• Annual guidance limited due to short order book visibility; only Q1 and some Q2 color provided.

• FY 2026 capex guidance is ~EUR 200m; base dividend to remain stable at EUR 2.00/share (~EUR 145m).

• Positive impact anticipated from higher Brazilian import duties, with benefits expected from late Q2 2026.

• Net financial debt is expected to rise in Q1 2026 due to seasonally higher working capital needs.