Apollo Global Management (APO) Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2026 summary

Macro environment and industry trends

• AI advancements, particularly from Anthropic, are seen as the most significant macro factor, potentially driving hyper-deflation and making risk assessment challenging over the next 12–24 months.

• The rapid pace of change, especially in AI and technology, is creating both uncertainty and opportunity, with large-scale players likely to benefit most.

• Massive capital needs in AI infrastructure, such as $1 trillion for chips and large-scale data center projects, are reshaping capital allocation and investment strategies.

• The investment regime may be shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy, with value moving toward capital-intensive models.

Risk management and balance sheet strategy

• Emphasis on de-risking through senior positions, underweighting software, and increasing exposure to treasuries, hard assets, and inflation-protected investments.

• Focus on diversification and avoiding concentrated risk, especially in rapidly changing markets.

• Risk management is prioritized, with a principle-first approach guiding both balance sheet and investment decisions.

Private credit and market misconceptions

• Private credit is viewed as a de-risking trade, with increasing quality and seniority, and not reliant on opacity or misalignment.

• Misconceptions persist about risk and transparency in private IG, but structures are designed to align interests and provide stability.

• Despite high redemptions, private credit structures have proven resilient, with no major failures or runs.