Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Investor Day 2026 summary

Scale and financial performance

• 2,500+ restaurants across 21 markets, with 120,000+ people in the system and 200M+ app downloads.

• Net revenue rose from $2.66B in 2021 to $4.68B in 2025, up 76% with >15% CAGR; sales per store increased 60%, traffic per store 31% and average check 21% vs. 2021.

• Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled from $272M in 2021 to $575M in 2025; margin rose from 10.2% to 12.3%, including a significant Brazil tax credit.

• Adjusted free cash flow was $143M LTM 2Q26, following $49M in 2025 and negative $30M in 2024; management expects solid positive cash flow as investment moderates.

• Delivery grew from <5% of sales in 2019 to ~20% in 2025 and nearly 22% of system sales in 2026, contributing >$1B of mostly incremental sales.

Growth strategy and capital allocation

• Priorities center on operational excellence, omnichannel organic growth, modernized restaurants, digital innovation and disciplined costs to support resilience, returns and adjusted free cash flow.

• Long-term growth algorithm targets mid-to-high-single-digit revenue growth and high-single- to low-double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth; these are average trends, not annual guidance.

• 2026 targets are 105–115 openings and $275M–$325M CapEx; 2027–2030 ambition is 550–600 openings and $1.3B–$1.5B CapEx, adjustable to market conditions.

• Organic growth and restaurant openings are primary cash uses; capital allocation prioritizes higher-return investments, adjusted free cash flow and shareholder returns, while dividends continue and buybacks remain under consideration.

• Comparable sales, EBITDA and margin, return on investment and adjusted free cash flow guide value creation and management incentives.

Customer, brand and digital growth

• Digital sales mix rose from 15% in 2019 to 29% in 2026; identified sales reached 28.8% LTM 2Q26, loyalty exceeded 36M members, and members had 5x higher customer lifetime value.

• The app has 200M+ downloads and supports 200M+ annual transactions; AI cross-selling recommendations generate ~30% higher average tickets.

• Brand preference gap over the main competitor widened from 5.0 pp in 2Q21 to 10.6 pp in 2Q26; blended market share gained >4 points since 2021.

• Chicken gained 7 points of category share in recent years, with McCrispy and further core chicken offerings supporting growth; crafted beverages target incremental, higher-margin occasions, especially with Gen Z.

• Technology priorities include AI personalization, forecasting, inventory and labor optimization, automated workflows and decision support; voice ordering launched in Argentina for testing before planned regional scaling.