Ashmore Group (ASHM) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Outperformance achieved with 70% of assets outperforming over three years and 81% over five years, despite a 3% decline in AUM to $47.6 billion and a 22% drop in revenue year-over-year.

• Net redemptions slowed significantly, with net inflows in equities, local currency, and investment grade strategies; high yield remains the only area with net outflows.

• Strategic diversification is delivering results, with growth in local businesses, equities, and alternatives, and new local platforms established in Qatar and Mexico.

• Operating model mitigated lower revenues, with operating costs reduced by 14% and adjusted EBITDA margin at 36%.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA fell 33% year-over-year to GBP 52.5 million, with a margin of 36%.

• Diluted EPS declined 13% to GBP 0.118; total dividend per share maintained at GBP 0.169.

• Adjusted net revenue was GBP 146.5 million, down 22% year-over-year, mainly due to lower average AUM and reduced performance fees.

• Profit before tax was GBP 108.6 million, 15% lower year-over-year.

• Seed capital program delivered GBP 40.1 million in mark-to-market gains.

Outlook and guidance

• Macro volatility and geopolitical risks persist, but strong EM returns and alpha generation are expected to attract capital as investor sentiment shifts.

• High real rates in EM provide opportunities for both carry and potential rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for EM assets.

• Management expects continued margin pressure but sees support from growth in higher-margin products and local offices.

• Performance fees for liquid themes in 2026 are expected to be around GBP 5 million, with additional potential from alternatives depending on realizations.