ASML (ASML) Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference summary

Market trends and demand outlook

• AI-driven growth is the primary driver for both logic and memory segments in 2024, while traditional markets like PC, smartphone, auto, and industrial remain slower to recover.

• Logic demand is expected to be lower in 2024 compared to 2023 due to industry digestion of prior capacity, while memory demand is higher, driven by technology node transitions and HBM for AI applications.

• Advanced node transitions, especially for high-performance compute and HBM, are key growth drivers, with further opportunities as the industry moves to 2nm and beyond.

• Utilization rates and inventory levels are improving, signaling ongoing recovery, but the pace of recovery into 2025 remains uncertain.

AI and technology trends

• AI is a long-term secular trend, now accelerating and expanding from cloud/server to end devices, creating broad industry demand.

• AI drives demand for advanced logic nodes and HBM memory, requiring both EUV and DUV lithography systems.

• The company will provide updated AI demand forecasts at its November Investor Day.

Customer and regional dynamics

• Customer CapEx adjustments, such as those by major industry players, are managed through close dialogue due to long lead times for advanced systems.

• The 2025 revenue outlook remains within the EUR 30–40 billion range, with more details to be provided in November.

• Recent regulatory changes in the Netherlands regarding China are process-related, not fundamental, allowing continued DUV shipments (1980s) to China, but not EUV or higher-end DUV systems.

• China accounted for an unusually high 49% of group revenue in Q2, expected to normalize to just over 20% as non-China demand recovers.