Athabasca Oil (ATH) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 production averaged 37,714 boe/d (98% liquids), representing 13% year-over-year growth and 24% growth per share, aligning with full-year guidance.

• Adjusted funds flow reached $130MM ($0.25/share), up 63% year-over-year, with robust free cash flow and 100% of FCF directed to share buybacks.

• Maintained a net cash position of $115MM and liquidity of $438MM, with $305MM in cash.

• Completed second annual share buyback, returning $289MM to shareholders and reducing share count by ~20% since March 2023.

• Advanced Leismer growth project and increased Hangingstone production, supporting robust operational execution.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 adjusted funds flow: $130MM; Q1 2025 revenue: $367.8MM, up from $311.1MM in Q1 2024.

• Net income rose to $72.0MM ($0.14/share) from $38.6MM ($0.07/share) year-over-year.

• Operating income increased to $145.6MM; operating netback improved to $44.07/boe from $35.78/boe.

• Free cash flow for 2025 projected at ~$250MM, with $94MM in share buybacks YTD (~18 million shares repurchased).

• Capital expenditures totaled $63.3MM, with $50.4MM in Thermal Oil and $13.0MM in Duvernay Energy.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 consolidated production guidance: 37,500–39,500 boe/d; current production ~40,000 boe/d, expecting to exit year at ~41,000 boe/d.

• Thermal Oil segment targeting 33,500–35,500 bbl/d; Duvernay Energy ~4,000 boe/d, growing to ~6,000 boe/d by year-end.

• Capital budget: $325MM consolidated ($250MM Thermal Oil, $75MM Duvernay), with Duvernay trending ~$10MM below budget.

• Leismer expansion to 40,000 bbl/d by end of 2027 remains on budget and schedule; Duvernay targeting ~20,000 boe/d in late 2020s.

• Forecasts Adjusted Funds Flow of $525–$550MM for 2025, with $475–$500MM from Thermal Oil.