Ball (BALL) Bank of America 2025 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference summary

Regional performance and market trends

• Exceeding expectations in Europe, with strong volume growth and ongoing transition from glass to cans, driven by ESG and carbon reporting pressures.

• South America shows robust recovery, especially in Argentina and Chile, with high-end long-term growth targets on track; Brazil's growth is more muted.

• North America sees decent starts in CSD and energy drinks, with beer volumes tied to premium light brands and consumer affordability.

• Energy drink segment is diversifying offerings across value and premium tiers, with pricing strategies adapting to inflation and consumer affordability.

• Substrate shifts in packaging are limited in North America but more pronounced in South America during inflationary periods.

Financial performance and capital allocation

• Achieved record earnings in 2023 and expects a new high watermark in 2024, despite significant portfolio challenges and divestitures.

• Overcame loss of $150 million EBIT from Russia and nearly $800 million EBITDA from aerospace, filling gaps through management actions.

• Returned nearly $2 billion to shareholders in 2023 via dividends and buybacks; plans at least $1.3 billion in buybacks for 2024-2025.

• CapEx for 2024 set slightly below GAAP D&A, around $600 million, with a focus on purposeful allocation.

• Share buybacks and international growth are key drivers for 11%-14% EPS and 2%-3% top-line growth outlook.

Tariffs, supply chain, and pricing impacts

• Recent U.S. aluminum tariffs impact ingot from Canada, raising Midwest Transaction Premium and adding about 1% to can costs, likely passed to customers.

• Full impact of tariffs expected from April-May 2024, with customer hedging strategies influencing timing and magnitude.

• Broader tariffs could significantly affect end consumers and market dynamics beyond aluminum cans.

• Substrate shifts due to tariffs are limited in North America; economic trade-offs favor cans in beer and two-liter plastic bottles in CSD for distressed areas.