Ball (BALL) Bank of America 2025 Global Agriculture and Materials Conference summary

Regional performance and market trends

• Exceeding expectations in Europe, with strong volume growth and ongoing transition from glass to cans, driven by ESG and carbon reporting pressures.

• South America shows robust recovery, especially in Argentina and Chile, with Brazil expected to see muted growth; overall, high end of long-term growth targets is achievable.

• North America sees decent starts in CSD and energy drinks, with beer volumes tied to premium light brands and consumer affordability.

• Energy drink segment is evolving with multi-tiered offerings and strategic pricing, responding to last year's slowdown and current inflationary pressures.

• European consumers have more discretionary income for food and beverage, supporting steady demand and favorable pack mix shifts.

Financial outlook and capital allocation

• Record earnings expected in 2024, despite significant portfolio changes and external challenges, with further EPS growth targeted for 2025.

• Nearly $2 billion returned to shareholders in 2023 via dividends and buybacks; at least $1.3 billion in share repurchases planned for 2024-2025.

• CapEx for 2024 set slightly below GAAP D&A, around $600 million, with disciplined capital allocation.

• 11%-14% earnings growth and 2%-3% volume growth targeted for the year, supported by strong performance in Europe and South America.

• Share buybacks and scenario planning are key tools to manage volatility and support earnings.

Tariffs, supply chain, and pricing impacts

• Recent tariffs on Canadian aluminum ingot are expected to increase per-can costs by about 1%, with the impact felt from April-May 2024.

• Cost increases are largely transferable to customers, but ultimate volume impact depends on consumer price sensitivity and customer hedging strategies.

• Substrate shifts in North America are limited, with most potential shifts occurring in distressed economic areas or in South America toward returnable glass.

• Broader tariffs could have significant negative effects on end consumers and the overall market.