Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 performance and profitability were in line with expectations, supported by strong domestic economic conditions and robust customer activity, as the final year of a three-year strategy was executed.

• Core loan book grew, notably Irish mortgages up 3.5% annualized; deposits remained stable at €103.2bn; Wealth AUM at €54.5bn with €0.5bn net inflows.

• Asset quality remains robust, with NPE ratio at 2.5%, near historical lows, and net capital generation of 50 basis points.

• Wealth and insurance assets under management were stable despite volatile markets, supported by net inflows.

• Guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with a positive outlook but vigilance to trade-related risks.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income (NII) for Q1 performed in line with expectations; full-year NII guidance reiterated at €3.25 billion, with 2025 NII expected to exceed €3.25bn.

• Net interest income down 8% year-over-year, reflecting ECB rate cuts and portfolio deleveraging.

• Total business income up 8% year-over-year; operating expenses up 3% year-over-year.

• Mortgage book grew 3.5% annualized in Q1; last year it grew by 6%.

• Sustainable Finance lending reached €15bn, meeting end-2025 target ahead of schedule.

Outlook and guidance

• Guidance for the year remains unchanged, with positive outlook reaffirmed to 2027.

• NII for 2026 expected at €3.25 billion, and €3.5 billion for 2027 is still the target.

• Business income projected to be ~5% higher vs 2024; operating expenses ~3% higher.

• Adjusted RoTE of ~15% expected; strong net organic capital generation of 250-270bps (excluding Basel IV benefit).

• Distribution policy unchanged: progressive DPS and annual return of surplus capital.