Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Strong year-to-date performance with Q3 results meeting or exceeding expectations, driven by robust Travel Health growth (+21% in Q3, +18% in 9M) and stable Public Preparedness, despite lower overall revenue year-over-year.

• Travel Health portfolio outperformed consensus, with significant growth in rabies (up 22% in Q3) and TBE vaccines (up 36% in Q3), and successful completion of a complex tech transfer from GSK.

• Public Preparedness business saw strong mpox vaccine sales, with major orders from the US, EU, UNICEF, and expanded regulatory approvals including WHO pre-qualification and new approvals in Singapore, Mexico, and New Zealand.

• Preparations underway for the launch of a new chikungunya vaccine, with regulatory reviews in the US and Europe and commercial expansion in key markets, targeting a 2025 launch.

• Manufacturing capacity for mpox vaccine is being expanded, with options to transfer production to Africa and fulfill at least 10 million doses by end of 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2024 revenue was DKK 1,363 million, nearly flat year-over-year; nine-month revenue reached DKK 3,622 million, with a 43% gross margin and EBITDA of DKK 692 million.

• Q3 EBITDA was DKK 250 million (18% margin); net profit for the first nine months was DKK 217 million.

• Cash and equivalents at quarter-end were DKK 1,871 million, with positive operating cash flow near DKK 1 billion.

• Milestone payments to GSK and Emergent totaled up to DKK 1.2 billion.

• Equity at September 30, 2024 stood at DKK 10,685 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Upgraded 2024 guidance: revenue DKK 5,400–5,800 million, EBITDA DKK 1,450–1,700 million, reflecting strong order intake and robust vaccine demand.

• Public Preparedness revenue guidance set at DKK 3,000–3,400 million, with execution dependent on Q4 logistics.

• For 2025, DKK 2,400 million of revenue already secured from mpox/smallpox orders, with potential for more if deferred 2024 revenue is recognized.

• Key assumptions include R&D costs of about DKK 850 million and tangible investments of DKK 100 million.