Brazil Potash (GRO) Water Tower Research Insights Conference summary

Market context and strategic importance

• Potash is a critical mineral for global food production, with 80% of supply concentrated in Canada, Russia, and Belarus, leading to price volatility and supply risks.

• Brazil is the world's largest net importer of potash, importing about 22% of a $30 billion market and is 98% import dependent.

• Brazil aims to reduce fertilizer imports to 45% by 2050, targeting 2.2 million tons of domestic potash by 2030 and 6.6 million tons by 2050.

• The project creates a fourth major global potash basin, providing supply security amid geopolitical instability.

Competitive advantages and cost structure

• Proximity to the Madeira River and major farming regions enables a delivered cost of $130/ton, far below global competitors.

• Strategic offtake agreements with major agricultural producers like AMAGGI leverage backhaul logistics, further reducing costs.

• Fully loaded production and transport costs are about $130/ton, compared to $280/ton for the next closest competitors.

Permitting, community, and sustainability

• Fully permitted for mine, plant, and port construction, with extensive community and Indigenous consultations completed over seven years.

• Over 90% support from Indigenous communities, exceeding participation thresholds.

• Only outstanding permit is for a 102-mile power line, expected to be non-contentious and will connect 200,000 people to Brazil's renewable grid.

• Early construction activities have begun, with front-end engineering design underway.