Centene (CNC) Deutsche Bank 2026 Healthcare Summit summary

Financial guidance and business outlook

• Reiterated 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of at least $4.80, with business performance in line with expectations through Q3 and consistent trends across business lines.

• Medicaid rates are tracking to a 5% composite full-year outlook, with quality and affordability initiatives ongoing and a focus on supporting state partners implementing work requirements.

• Marketplace business is prioritizing sustainable margin over membership, fully accounting for ACA program integrity impacts, and targeting a 4.5%-5% margin for 2026.

• Medicare portfolio simplification is underway, focusing on duals and complex populations, aiming for breakeven or better in 2027 and continued margin progression.

• Part D business is below benchmark in all regions for 2027, not concerned about premium subsidy demo discontinuation, and on track for 3%+ margins.

Medicaid segment trends and strategy

• Medicaid HBR is on track for 93.5 in 2026, with membership decline expected at 8%-9% by year-end due to eligibility tightening and work requirements.

• States are mostly adopting monthly eligibility checks, leading to gradual membership declines into 2027-2028, with early implementations aligning with expectations.

• Focus areas for cost management include behavioral health, home health, and high-cost drugs, with initiatives targeting these trends.

• Data interfaces with states are being built to support eligibility determinations and member engagement in work/community programs.

• Margin in Medicaid is currently positive but below long-term goals; efforts are ongoing to match rates and acuity, with industry dynamics supporting managed care growth.

Medicare Advantage and Part D performance

• Medicare Advantage trends are stable, with focus on duals and complex populations, and margin progression targeted for 2027.

• Stars program reform is anticipated, with ongoing advocacy for measures that reflect complex member needs and a buffer built for cut point pressures.

• Part D margins are expected to remain above 3% for 2026, with cost structure advantages from not owning a PBM and strong CMS partnership.

• PBM partnership is new as of 2024, with ongoing opportunities to optimize specialty drug costs and rebate yields.

• 340B pricing is monitored to ensure intended benefits for members and avoid negative impacts from duplicative claims.