Century Aluminum Company (CENX) 34th Annual BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference summary

Market environment and industry trends

• Global aluminum prices have been rising, with Q4 averaging just under $2,600/ton and spot prices recently above $2,700.

• Chinese supply is capped at 45 million tons, with policy changes favoring domestic use, supporting Western market prices.

• Section 232 tariffs in the U.S. have increased to 25% effective March 12, boosting domestic premiums and competitiveness.

• Midwest Premium has doubled from $0.20 to $0.40, with expectations of $0.45–$0.50 post-tariff, significantly increasing EBITDA.

• Russian aluminum units are still present in the global market, with no major expected price impact from geopolitical changes.

Operations and expansion projects

• U.S. smelters benefit from favorable power prices, with only minor Q1 volatility expected to normalize in Q2.

• Plans to restart 50,000–60,000 tons at Mount Holly and consider options for the idled Hawesville smelter.

• Progress continues on a new greenfield smelter, with a $500 million DOE grant and advanced engineering and site selection.

• The new smelter would be among the world’s largest and most energy-efficient, with energy sourcing negotiations expected to conclude by end of Q2.

• Jamalco refinery in Jamaica is ramping up, with $15–$20 million CapEx planned over 2025–2026 to reach 1.4 million tons capacity.

Financial outlook and capital allocation

• Each $100 increase in LME price adds nearly $50 million in annualized EBITDA; each cent in Midwest Premium adds $9 million.

• Q2 earnings expected to benefit from higher spot prices and Midwest Premium, with a $45–$50 million quarterly EBITDA uplift.

• First priority for cash flow is deleveraging the balance sheet, followed by funding capital projects and potential shareholder returns.

• Shareholder returns may take the form of buybacks or dividends, with decisions based on cash flow and shareholder preference.

• M&A strategy remains disciplined, focusing on low-cost, value-accretive opportunities.