CNX Resources (CNX) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Capital expenditures are weighted toward the first half of the year, with about 60% of annual CapEx front-loaded, supporting a flat production profile and providing flexibility to accelerate activity if market conditions improve.

• Achieved 24 consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, with Q4 2025 FCF at $132 million and full-year 2025 FCF at $646 million, exceeding guidance.

• The company remains committed to a maintenance production strategy due to infrastructure constraints and regulatory challenges in Appalachia, with any production increases contingent on long-term demand signals and infrastructure development.

• Focuses on ultra-low carbon intensive natural gas development, production, midstream, and technology in Appalachia, emphasizing responsible resource development and long-term per share value creation.

• No material operational disruptions are expected from recent cold weather events, as preparations have ensured continued field operations.

Outlook and guidance

• Any increase in activity, such as adding a frac crew in the second half of 2026, is not included in current CapEx guidance and would depend on sustained improvements in gas prices and long-term demand visibility.

• 2026E free cash flow yield projected at 11%, with a cash operating margin at 64%.

• 2026 production volumes guidance: 605–620 Bcfe; 81% of natural gas hedged.

• Hedges for 2027 are targeted at 80% of production, with over 60% already hedged at a weighted average NYMEX price of about $4.

• The company will remain opportunistic in completing its 2027 hedge book, aiming for strong business performance at current hedge levels.

Segment performance

• The RNG business expects a run-rate of about $30 million annually from 45Z credits at current production levels, pending final guidance.

• The PA Tier 1 REC market remains stable, with long-term price increases dependent on tighter renewable standards.

• Coal mine methane volumes are expected to remain stable, driven by underlying mining activity, with a 20+ year life of mine.

• The deep Utica program is progressing as planned, with five laterals to be completed this year and average drilling costs around $1,700 per foot; well performance is in line with expectations.

• Marcellus and Utica stacked pay development continues, with Marcellus wells expected to deliver just under 2.0 Bcf/d.