Coherent (COHR) Status update summary

Strategic Growth Opportunities and Market Expansion

• Targeting over $50B SAM from existing engines and adding $20B+ incremental SAM with new products by 2030, including OCS, CPO/NPO, Multi-Rail systems, and advanced thermal solutions.

• OCS TAM estimate doubled to $4B by 2030 due to broader use cases and faster adoption, with deployments expanding beyond spine switch replacement.

• CPO/NPO TAM projected at $15B by 2030, with first CPO revenues expected in the second half of 2026 and scale-up adoption ramping in 2027.

• Multi-Rail innovation enables fourfold traffic increase in the same space with sublinear power scaling, with first revenues expected in early 2027.

• Advanced thermal materials, including ThermaDite, silicon carbide, diamond cold plates, and thermoelectric generators, target a $2B TAM by 2030, with revenue expected to begin in the second half of next year.

Technology Leadership and Product Innovation

• Demonstrated leadership in pluggable transceivers, with a robust roadmap to 1.6T, 3.2T, and 6.4T, and innovations like XPO and high-density form factors.

• Broadest and deepest CPO/NPO technology portfolio, including silicon photonics, VCSEL, and indium phosphide-based solutions, with strong customer engagement and industry partnerships.

• OCS features integrated software stack and liquid crystal technology, with software praised for ease of integration and reliability.

• Award-winning innovations in DCI transceivers, transport equipment, and Multi-Rail systems, with industry recognition at OFC.

• Proprietary materials like ThermaDite offer high barriers to entry and are being repurposed from industrial to data center applications.

Manufacturing and Capacity Expansion

• Indium phosphide capacity is doubling in 2024 and again in 2025, with further expansion in 2026 and 2027 via new 6" lines in Texas, Sweden, and Switzerland.

• High-volume production of InP EMLs, CW lasers, and VCSELs, with strong customer engagements and multi-year orders.

• End-to-end semiconductor photonics capability, from EML and CW lasers to VCSELs and photodetectors, provides supply chain resilience and innovation speed.

• Diversified supply chain for indium phosphide substrates, with over five suppliers and long-term agreements, ensures visibility and security for future capacity needs.

• Continued focus on expanding manufacturing in strategic geographies, ensuring both capacity and customer-preferred locations.