Commerzbank (CBK) Goldman Sachs 30th Annual European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Strategic outlook and financial targets

• Momentum 2030 strategy targets a 17% return on tangible equity by 2028 and 21% by 2030, driven by robust business growth and transformation initiatives.

• Cost-income ratio is projected to improve from 56% currently to 53% this year, 48% by 2028, and 43% by 2030, reflecting efficiency gains, especially from AI adoption.

• AI is expected to contribute around €500 million in value from 2030 onwards, mainly through cost reduction and process acceleration.

• Loan growth exceeded expectations last year at 10%, with future growth expected to remain strong, particularly outside Germany due to geopolitical factors.

• Deposit growth assumptions remain conservative at 2–3% annually, with deposit beta expected to rise to 45% amid increased competition.

Competitive landscape and operational efficiency

• Competition from new entrants like Chase is being monitored, but current offers mainly attract rate-sensitive customers already active in the market.

• Investments in digital onboarding and mobile app enhancements aim to strengthen customer value proposition.

• The replicating portfolio continues to add stable value, with upside potential if forward rates remain favorable.

• AI-driven process improvements are already yielding faster policy drafting and operational efficiencies.

UniCredit takeover offer and stakeholder perspectives

• Management remains open to a friendly deal with UniCredit, contingent on a significant premium for shareholders and appropriate governance reflecting the German market.

• The current offer is viewed as unattractive, offering a discount rather than a premium, and is considered value-destructive if pursued in a hostile manner.

• The German government, as a major shareholder, opposes the current approach and prioritizes stability and governance aligned with national interests.

• Concerns were raised about the transparency and rationale behind tendered shares, especially regarding derivative structures and share lending, prompting regulatory scrutiny.

• A scenario where UniCredit gains a 40–50% stake without full control is seen as undesirable and potentially destabilizing for both parties.