Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBAV3) Investor presentation summary

Market balance and inventories

• Global aluminum deficit narrowed to 338 kt in 3Q26 as Chinese production recovered gradually and Middle East restarts advanced, though supply constraints kept the market tight.

• Global stocks fell to 44 days of consumption, below the 50-day equilibrium and at their lowest level in recent years.

• Official LME and SHFE stocks declined sharply in 3Q26, led by SHFE destocking amid strong Chinese demand and Golden Week restocking.

Demand and supply trends

• Global demand grew YoY in 3Q26, supported by Chinese solar and automotive consumption and improving industrial activity outside China.

• Chinese primary aluminum consumption reached a record 12.1 Mt in 3Q26; September manufacturing PMI was 52.1, with solar and auto demand offsetting construction weakness.

• Ex-China demand recovered toward levels seen in prior years, supported by transportation, packaging and non-residential construction.

• Global downstream demand is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2026E, led by China and India, with manufacturing growth balancing construction weakness.

• China's annualized primary output declined from 46.4 Mt in June to 44.9 Mt in September; net exports lost momentum as domestic consumption increased.

Pricing and margins

• LME aluminum averaged $3,226/t in 3Q26, down from $3,571/t in 2Q26 as easing supply risks and signs of production recovery reduced scarcity concerns.

• US Midwest duty-paid and Rotterdam premiums declined, while US Midwest duty-unpaid and Brazilian premiums rose; premiums remained historically high.

• The LME correction pressured 3Q26 margins, especially outside China where alumina costs rose QoQ; profitability remained above 3Q25, while China margins were practically stable QoQ.

• The average LME price remained above the cost curve of most global production, placing the operation in the first quartile of the cost curve.