Credito Emiliano (CE) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net profit for H1 2025 reached €371.8 million, up 14.8% year-over-year; normalized net profit was €278.1 million, excluding a €93.7 million gain from the merchant acquiring sale.

• Customer base grew by over 94,000, reaching 1.6 million, supported by diversified business lines and strong net inflows in AUM and insurance.

• Annualized ROTE was 15.4% and ROE 13.6%, with asset quality and capitalization among the best in Italy and Europe.

• The group maintained top-tier capital ratios and asset quality, confirming resilience in ECB stress tests.

Financial highlights

• Loans grew 4.3% year-over-year, outpacing the Italian banking system average of 0.5%; direct funding rose 2.6% YoY to €107.1 billion.

• Net inflows from asset management and insurance reached nearly €1.5 billion, with AUM and insurance reserves up over €1 billion since end-2024.

• Gross NPL ratio at 1.6% and net NPL ratio at 0.7%, both well below Italian and European averages.

• CET1 ratio at 17.0% (Group) and 15.8% (Holding), providing a buffer of 742 basis points over SREP requirements.

• Operating costs decreased 3% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to lower staff expenses, but increased 4% year-over-year due to investments and labor agreements.

Outlook and guidance

• NII for 2025 expected to be about 15% lower than 2024 due to declining rates, with a flat to slightly declining trend anticipated for 2026.

• Loan growth guidance for 2025 and 2026 is around 2.5%-3% annually, driven by residential mortgages, consumer credit, and selective corporate lending.

• Management and brokerage fees expected to grow above 5%, with net inflows target of €2 billion for 2025 likely to be exceeded.

• Operating costs will be impacted by collective agreement renewals and investments in digital transformation and AI.

• Credit risk is expected to remain low, with cost of risk guidance for 2025 at 15 basis points.