CSX (CSX) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 2% total volume growth in 2024, outpacing flat U.S. industrial production despite major disruptions from hurricanes, a bridge collapse, and weak commodity prices; merchandise revenue rose 3% on higher volumes and pricing.

• Fourth quarter saw 1% volume growth and 4% revenue decline, with adjusted EPS down 7% due to lower coal prices, fuel surcharges, and a $108 million goodwill impairment.

• Customer service improvements and network optimization led to business gains, record Net Promoter Scores, and expanded growth opportunities.

• Major operational improvements included record-low employee lost workdays and accelerated completion of the Howard Street Tunnel project.

• Management remains focused on safety, service, and operating efficiency, with continued investment in network strength and capabilities.

Financial highlights

• Full-year 2024 revenue declined 1% to $14.54 billion on 2% volume growth; adjusted operating income down 3%, adjusted EPS stable at $1.83.

• Q4 revenue was $3.54 billion, down 4% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $0.42, down 7%; Q4 adjusted operating income was $1.21 billion, margin at 34.3%.

• Expenses rose 3% in Q4, driven by higher purchased services, depreciation, and equipment rents, partially offset by lower fuel and labor costs.

• Shareholder returns in 2024 totaled $3.2 billion, including $2.24 billion in share repurchases and $930 million in dividends.

• Free cash flow before dividends was $2.78 billion for 2024, down from $3.35 billion in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: low to mid-single-digit total volume growth, led by merchandise and intermodal; coal volumes expected to decline due to plant closures and mine issues.

• Full-year revenue to be pressured by lower coal prices and reduced fuel surcharges, especially in H1 2025; major construction projects to add $10 million/month in costs through Q4.

• Q1 operating income will be the trough, with improvement and year-over-year growth expected in H2.

• Three-year EPS growth guidance of high single to low double digits reaffirmed, assuming stable commodity prices.

• CapEx expected to be flat year-over-year in 2025, excluding hurricane recovery.