DaVita (DVA) 8th Annual Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference summary

Q3 volume and clinical initiatives

• Q3 volume was ~20 bps below expectations, driven by missed treatments; census was slightly better than expected and missed-treatment rate was ~20 bps worse than expected and Q3 2025.

• Hospitalization-related missed treatments drove the shortfall amid broader U.S. hospitalization increases; Q4 assumptions call for the usual seasonal rise in missed treatments, with a normal YoY pattern.

• New dialyzers designed to clear middle molecules are rolling out to all clinics, with availability expected for most eligible patients in November; clinical evidence points to mortality improvement over the next few years.

Q4 operating dynamics

• Calendar effects shift from a ~65 bps YoY tailwind in Q3 2026 to an almost 100 bps YoY headwind in Q4; treatment days are expected to be flattish or slightly negative, making treatments per normalized day a smoother measure.

• Revenue per treatment (RPT) is expected to rise QoQ in Q4, but fall YoY versus unusually high Q4 2025; lower commercial mix and continued ACA decline weigh on RPT.

• Binder contribution to RPT and cost per treatment is expected to decline from Q3 to Q4; lower cost per treatment is expected to support YoY Q4 performance.

• IKC is expected to step up substantially in Q4; international is not expected to repeat Q3’s benefit from non-recurring Brazil divestitures.

Reimbursement and coverage

• The Medicare fee-for-service rate increase is framed at 1.5%-2%; TDAPA add-on payments drive most variability, with the rate range to be updated as quarterly ASP and utilization data emerge.

• The structurally consistent rate component is likely above CMS’s 40 bps LDO figure; each 1% of rate is worth about $30 million of operating income, while Medicare Advantage rates are negotiated with payers.

• The anticipated $70 million exchange impact reflects lower commercial mix in new patient starts and annualization; coverage transitions take time, and 2027 exchange assumptions follow CBO estimates.