Dow (DOW) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2025 operating EBITDA was $741 million, reflecting a sequential decline due to lower seasonal demand and margin compression, but over $165 million in cost savings and more than half of $6.5 billion in near-term cash support actions were delivered.

• Full-year 2025 net sales reached $40.0 billion, with operating EBITDA of $3.3 billion and $1.5 billion returned to shareholders.

• The Transform to Outperform program targets at least $2 billion in near-term EBITDA improvement, with $500 million expected in 2026 and two-thirds from productivity.

• Path2Zero project in Alberta delayed to late 2029 to align with market recovery, with phase one startup now targeted for year-end 2029.

• CEO highlighted progress on cost and cash support actions, with a focus on further productivity and earnings improvements.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 operating EBITDA was $741 million, down $464 million year-over-year, with net sales of $9.5 billion, down 9% year-over-year and 5% sequentially.

• Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment Q4 net sales were $4.7 billion, with a 2% volume decrease year-over-year; operating EBIT was $215 million.

• Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment Q4 net sales were $2.7 billion, down 9% year-over-year; operating EBIT loss of $201 million.

• Performance Materials and Coatings segment Q4 net sales were $1.9 billion, down 6% year-over-year; operating EBIT $25 million, up $34 million year-over-year.

• Cash and cash equivalents at year-end exceeded $3.8 billion, with $14 billion in available liquidity.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2026 EBITDA expected to be approximately $750 million, reflecting margin expansion and seasonal uplift, with net sales projected at ~$9.4 billion.

• Transform to Outperform program expected to deliver $500 million in EBITDA uplift in 2026 and $1 billion in annual benefits from ongoing initiatives.

• FY26 modeling includes $50–$150 million lower equity earnings year-over-year, $65 million higher pension impact, and $200 million higher turnaround expenses.

• Expects continued cost savings and productivity improvements, but higher planned turnaround spending will offset some gains.