Ecora Royalties (ECOR) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Critical minerals comprised the majority of portfolio contribution for the first time, with base metals reaching 50% of total contribution and expected to grow to ~85% by 2030.

• Achieved a record level of portfolio contribution, driven by a 150% year-on-year increase in base metals exposure.

• Acquired the producing Mimbula copper stream for $50 million, cementing copper at the core of commodity exposures and accelerating deleveraging.

• Portfolio contribution was $57.0m, down from $63.2m in 2024, with free cash flow rising 24% year-over-year to $27.4m.

• Net debt declined rapidly from $125 million post-acquisition to $85 million by year-end, returning to levels similar to the start of the year.

Financial highlights

• Portfolio contribution slightly down year-on-year at $57.0m, but base metals now contribute 50% of overall earnings for the first time.

• Adjusted earnings per share fell to 8.86c from 11.43c year-over-year, impacted by higher financing costs and currency movements.

• Free cash flow improved 24% year-over-year, driven by a declining Kestrel contribution and lower effective tax rates.

• Dividend per share was 2.00c, down from 2.81c in 2024; proposed total dividend for the year is 2 pence per share.

• Voisey's Bay and Mantos Blancos saw 113% and 43% volume growth, respectively; Mantos Blancos generated a record $9.5 million contribution.

Outlook and guidance

• Volume growth expected in 2026 from key base metal royalties, with multiple near-term catalysts in the development portfolio.

• 2026 guidance for Kestrel is 1.1 million tonnes, with volumes expected to decline further in subsequent years.

• Net debt projected to fall to $53 million by end of 2026 and $27 million by end of 2027, well within covenant levels.

• Continued deleveraging anticipated, supported by commodity price tailwinds and a focus on growth and diversification.

• Inflationary environment seen as beneficial to the royalty model.