EDP Renováveis (EDPR) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 3 GW capacity additions year-on-year, with strong U.S. solar contribution and 4.1 GW under construction, targeting close to 4 GW for the year; North America led growth with 15% generation increase and 1.9 GW new capacity.

• Renewable generation rose 5% year-on-year to 26.5 TWh, driven by new capacity and improved resources, especially in the U.S.; South America saw a 30% decline in production.

• Recurring EBITDA rose 7% year-on-year to €1,294m, but recurring net profit fell 55% to €210m, mainly due to lower asset rotation gains and Colombia project impact.

• Efficiency initiatives reduced core OPEX per MW by 7% year-on-year, with headcount down 3% and EBIT per employee up 17%.

• Asset rotation involved four transactions totaling 1.1 GW, generating €1.5bn in proceeds at attractive multiples.

Financial highlights

• Revenues increased 5% year-on-year to €1,731m, with electricity sales up 1% and average selling price at €59.4/MWh, down 4% due to lower Iberian prices but supported by hedging.

• Underlying EBITDA reached €1.3B, up 7% year-on-year, but recurring EBITDA declined €142M due to lower asset rotation gains.

• Net profit for nine months was €210M, down from €467M year-on-year, mainly due to lower capital gains and Colombia project impact (-€65M).

• Net debt rose to €7.8B, up €2B since December 2023, driven by €3.1B expansion CAPEX and delayed asset rotation proceeds.

• EBITDA margin fell to 75% from 86% year-on-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year generation expected at 35–36 TWh, below previous 40 TWh guidance, due to resource and timing issues; later commissioning of new capacity now expected in 4Q24.

• Average selling price for 2024 expected in the high €50s/MWh, above prior guidance.

• EBITDA for 2024 likely below €1.9B guidance, with net profit expected around €250M, reflecting lower capital gains.

• More than 2 GW capacity already secured for 2025, with additional growth targeted in core markets; 2025–26 supply chain fully secured.

• New business plan and updated guidance for 2026+ to be provided in 2025 after U.S. policy clarity.