Empresas Copec (COPEC) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• EBITDA for Q4 2025 was US$599 million, down 7.3% year-over-year and 6.7% sequentially, mainly due to lower forestry performance, partially offset by strong energy results.

• Net income rose 26.4% year-over-year and 22.0% quarter-over-quarter to US$242 million, driven by mining (Mina Justa) and energy, despite weaker forestry.

• Adjusted EBITDA reached US$714 million, up 10.2% year-over-year, reflecting contributions from non-consolidated assets.

• Revenues in Q4 2025 increased 10.8% year-over-year and 4.8% sequentially to US$7.7 billion.

• Major projects advanced: Sucuriú in Brazil reached 43% completion, and panel expansions in Chile and Mexico neared 75%.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was US$714 million, up 10.2% year-over-year.

• Energy EBITDA grew 30.1% year-over-year to US$322 million, while forestry EBITDA dropped 29.4% to US$288 million.

• Mina Justa EBITDA surged 48.2% year-over-year, including an US$82 million impairment reversal.

• CapEx for the year was US$955 million, mainly allocated to Sucuriú and forestry projects.

• Net financial debt to EBITDA ratio increased to 3.58x (3.26x adjusted), reflecting higher leverage.

Outlook and guidance

• Market pulp production expected to decline in early 2026 due to mill closures, weather, and strikes, potentially supporting prices.

• Stable demand in China and Europe anticipated, with some upward price momentum in hardwood.

• North American wood products markets remain challenging, while Latin America, especially Brazil and Chile, shows signs of recovery.

• Continued focus on profitability, execution of Sucuriú, and prudent financial management.

• Expansion of fast-charging and renewable energy projects planned for 2026.