Engie Brasil Energia (EGIE3) Investor Day 2025 summary

Market outlook and demand trends

• Brazilian energy demand is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2025 over 2024, with a five-year CAGR of 4.1%, indicating robust long-term growth despite past crises.

• Gross demand growth is not a concern, with a historical average CAGR of 2.8% since 2000.

• There is a trend of increasing energy use intensity in the market.

Generation, storage, and curtailment

• Hydro generation shows high volatility, while wind and distributed generation have seen rapid expansion.

• Wind and solar curtailment rates are high, with 17.3% and 28.4% respectively for the company, above the system average.

• Curtailment is expected to worsen, with forecasts of 20–25% annual output curtailed by 2030, mainly due to distributed generation growth.

• Mitigation may come from diversified generation portfolios, regulatory changes, and battery integration.

Price and market dynamics

• Spot prices in 2025 have shown strong volatility, with Southeast averaging 219 BRL/MWh and Northeast 167 BRL/MWh.

• Market opening has led to a 32% drop in natural gas prices since 2022, with the Northeast region paying 21.4% less than the Southeast.

• The number of gas contracts increased by 2,660% and active chargers by 106% between 2022 and 2025, reflecting a more competitive and open market.