Experian (EXPN) 50th Annual Automotive Symposium summary

Market mix and inventory

• Preliminary Q3 2026: leasing stayed near 23%–24% of new sales; cash accounted for ~17%, while used-vehicle cash purchases reached record levels.

• New vehicles were 25% of Q3 retail purchases; vehicles aged 9+ years approached 44% of purchases, and about half of their buyers had prime credit.

• Used vehicles averaged 11.6 years old in 2026; financed vehicle ages continued to rise as buyers moved into older inventory.

• Off-lease supply is expected to reach ~3.3 million vehicles in 2027, with a peak in Q2; EVs are projected to make up 18% of off-lease vehicles next year.

Lender competition and electric vehicles

• Banks regained the largest overall lender share and most major lenders were in growth mode; finance companies were gaining share, especially in used lending.

• The top 25 lenders accounted for over 60% of auto financing; used lending was increasingly concentrated, with the largest lenders holding ~52%.

• New EVs were back near 7%–8% of sales in Q3; hybrids approached 17% of new purchases. EVs were leased at ~32%, versus ~23% for all vehicles.

• Used EV retail topped 422,000 through August, with a year-end estimate of 520,000–540,000; Tesla held 51% of used EV sales, and Carvana led used EV retail and financing.

• EV residuals were weaker than other fuel types, creating potential affordable used-car options; used EVs were mainly cash- or loan-financed, and Tesla loyalty was cited at 96%.

Affordability and credit

• Buyers with household incomes above $100,000 represented over 50% of new-car purchasers in 2026, up from 44% five years earlier; SUV/CUVs exceeded 63% of new purchases.

• Average new-car loan amounts approached $44,000; the average new payment was $773 and used payment $548. New-car terms averaged 69 months and used-car terms 68 months.

• Payments above $1,000 accounted for 19% of new-car loans in Q3, up from 18% in the prior quarter and ~10% five years earlier; pickup payments averaged $1,001.

• Loans of 73–84 months represented nearly one-third of new and ~31% of used sales; lenders were also exploring 85-month terms, while 85-month LTVs averaged ~133%.

• New-car average credit scores fell 2 points YoY; near-prime and subprime share grew. Banks were expanding into 500–660 score ranges using improved analytics and alternative data.