First Quantum Minerals (FM) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 copper production was 160,200 t, down 28% QoQ, as Cobre Panamá’s suspension and lower Zambian output weighed on production and sales.

• Q4 net loss attributable to shareholders was $1.447bn; adjusted loss was $259m, or $0.37/share. FY2023 net loss was $954m; adjusted earnings were $261m, or $0.38/share.

Financial highlights

• Q4 revenue was $1.218bn, gross profit $87m and EBITDA $273m; gross profit fell 87% and EBITDA 72% QoQ.

• FY2023 revenue was $6.456bn, gross profit $1.292bn and EBITDA $2.328bn, versus $7.626bn, $2.200bn and $3.316bn in 2022.

• Q4 operating cash flow was negative $185m; net debt rose $783m QoQ to $6.420bn, and year-end total debt was $7.379bn.

• FY2023 copper production was 707,678 t, down 9% YoY; adjusted EPS was $0.38, down $1.16 from 2022.

• Q4 included a $900m impairment: $854m at Ravensthorpe and $46m against exploration assets; unsold Cobre Panamá concentrate also affected results.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance, excluding Cobre Panamá: copper 370–420 kt, gold 95–115 koz and nickel 22–37 kt; copper C1 cost $1.80–$2.05/lb and AISC $2.70–$3.00/lb.

• 2024 capital expenditure guidance is $1.25–$1.40bn; planned capital programs were reduced or rephased by ~$400m in 2024 and $250m in 2025.

• 2024 interest expense is forecast at $610–$630m and cash interest outflow at $555–$575m, excluding specified related-party and capitalized interest.

• 2025–2026 copper output guidance is 400–460 kt as the Kansanshi S3 Expansion comes online; first S3 production is expected in H2 2025.

• Cobre Panamá production guidance is suspended during P&SM; associated costs are estimated at $15–$20m per month.