Fortum (FORTUM) Status Update summary

Strategic priorities, market outlook, and clean transition

• Electrification and decarbonization in the Nordics are driving robust demand growth, with power needs expected to double by 2050, especially from sectors like green metals, battery manufacturing, and data centers.

• Customers prioritize stable, low-emission electricity, with some requiring 100% renewable sources and others focusing on predictability and long-term contracts.

• The Nordic power system is increasingly weather-dependent, causing high price volatility and requiring flexible, firm, and variable generation, including wind, solar, hydropower, and nuclear.

• Renewables and storage will address near-term demand growth, while pumped hydro and nuclear are considered for long-term stability.

• Maintaining a balanced power mix supports supply security and system stability.

Nuclear energy strategy, expertise, and sustainability

• Nuclear power is seen as vital for a resilient, low-carbon Nordic power system, with a significant portion of the fleet nearing end-of-life in the next 20 years.

• Over 45 years of nuclear operations experience, with 3.2 GW capacity, 24.3 TWh output in 2024, and strong in-house engineering and lifecycle services.

• Lifetime extensions of existing plants are a priority, but new nuclear is being developed as a long-term option to meet future demand and replace retiring units by 2040.

• 99% of power generation is from renewable or nuclear sources, with net-zero targeted by 2040.

Feasibility study findings, investment preconditions, and risk management

• New nuclear is not viable under the current merchant market model due to price volatility and lack of long-term visibility, but could work with risk-sharing frameworks and increased demand.

• Four main preconditions for investment: income visibility and demand growth, competitive cost of capital, strong co-investors, and robust project execution capabilities.

• Government risk-sharing mechanisms, such as contracts-for-difference or state guarantees, are essential to provide price stability and lower production costs.

• Project execution should focus on proven technologies, experienced contractors, and supply chain readiness.

• Long construction times, high capital needs, and post-commissioning market prices are key risks; nuclear should be treated equally with other clean technologies in financing and regulation.