Glencore (GLEN) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved $13.5 billion adjusted EBITDA for 2025, with strong performance in metals, especially copper and zinc, and a recovery in coal prices in the second half, though this was down 6% year-over-year.

• Marketing EBIT reached $2.9 billion, driven by metals trading opportunities, while energy and coal trading was weaker but improved late in the year.

• Net income was $0.4 billion, a significant turnaround from a loss of $1.6 billion in 2024, driven by a strong H2 performance.

• Delivered on production guidance for the second consecutive year, reinforcing operational reliability.

• Portfolio optimization included asset sales (Century Aluminum stake, Colombian port, PASAR smelter) and ongoing simplification.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA: $13.5 billion for 2025, with industrial EBITDA close to $10 billion.

• Marketing EBIT: $2.9 billion, above the midpoint of the new range, excluding Viterra trading profits.

• Net funding reduced from $14.5 billion to $10 billion, despite CapEx and distributions.

• Net debt stable at $8.7 billion; $1 billion tax payment to HMRC expected to be partially recovered.

• Shareholder returns since 2021 exceed $27 billion; $2 billion in 2026 returns announced, including a $0.8 billion special distribution.

Outlook and guidance

• Strong momentum expected to continue into 2026, with spot illustrative EBITDA annualizing over $16 billion.

• CapEx guidance unchanged at $26–$28 billion over the next three years, averaging $6.5 billion annually.

• Copper production expected to grow from 1 million to 1.6 million tons, with potential to exceed 2 million by 2035; 2026 guidance is 810–870kt.

• Copper net unit cash cost expected to fall significantly in 2026 as cobalt sales resume and production increases.

• Coal and energy markets showing signs of recovery; potential for supply discipline in energy coal if oversupplied.