Green Plains (GPRE) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 net income attributable to shareholders was $85.4M, or $1.03 diluted EPS, versus $11.9M and $0.17 a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA rose to $118.0M from $52.6M.

• Results benefited from Section 45Z credits, stronger ethanol margins, ~95% utilization across eight operating plants and record ethanol and renewable corn oil yields.

Financial highlights

• Q3 revenue was $496.0M versus $508.5M YoY; lower volumes, including the Obion plant sale, were partly offset by higher selling prices.

• Operating income was $92.6M versus $60.4M; net income attributable to shareholders was $85.4M, with basic EPS of $1.23 and diluted EPS of $1.03.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $118.0M versus $52.6M YoY, comprising $52.6M from the base business and $65.4M from 45Z credits, net of discounts and other costs.

• Consolidated ethanol crush margin was $122.8M versus $59.6M YoY; ethanol production operating income was $99.0M versus $30.9M.

• 9M revenue was $1.388B versus $1.663B; net income attributable was $185.5M versus a $133.2M loss, and adjusted EBITDA was $282.9M versus $44.9M.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 Section 45Z credit EBITDA contribution guidance was raised to $230M–$250M; 2027 low-carbon platform adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach at least $250M.

• Advantage Nebraska represents a $160M–$180M 2026 EBITDA opportunity; remaining facilities are expected to generate ~$70M of 45Z EBITDA.

• Q4 base-business gross margins are expected to remain above historical averages, with utilization in the mid-90% range.

• Growth CapEx is expected to exceed the 2026 level of $20M–$25M in 2027; planned projects target grain storage, lower natural gas use and higher oil yields.

• 2026 net ethanol exports are estimated at 2.4B–2.5B gallons; 2027 exports are forecast above 2.6B gallons.