Greenfire Resources (GFR) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Holds oil reserves of 232 MMbbls 1P and 409 MMbbls 2P, supporting a 39-year and 69-year reserve life index as of YE 2025.

• Q1 2026 bitumen production averaged 14,719 bbls/d, down from 15,699 bbls/d in Q4 2025, reflecting declines at the Expansion Asset and slight growth at the Demo Asset.

• Market capitalization at C$1,109 million and enterprise value at C$1,087 million as of March 31, 2026.

• Ownership split is 72% Waterous Energy Fund and 28% public.

• Adjusted funds flow was $24.5 million, while adjusted free cash flow showed a deficit of $25.1 million for the quarter.

Financial highlights

• Oil sales for Q1 2026 totaled $147.3 million, with operating netback at $31.4 million ($23.42/bbl), down from $51.1 million ($35.26/bbl) in Q4 2025.

• Net debt position of C$22 million surplus as of March 31, 2026.

• After-tax NPV10 for 1P reserves is C$1.6 billion and for 2P reserves is C$2.0 billion.

• Net income for Q1 2026 was $5.1 million, compared to a net loss of $73.0 million in Q4 2025.

• Cash provided by operating activities was $1.4 million, a significant decrease from $35.3 million in the previous quarter.

Outlook and guidance

• Near-term development plan focuses on NE region, with Pad 7 (14 well pairs) targeting first oil in Q4 2026, Pad 5SE (3 well pairs) in Q2 2027, and Pad 8 (9 well pairs) in Q3 2027.

• 2026 capital budget increased to $210 million to accelerate Pad 8 drilling; production guidance maintained at 13,500–15,500 bbls/d.

• Major turnaround at the Expansion Asset scheduled for May 2026, resulting in a full plant outage for part of the month.

• Expansion asset expected to deliver significant value creation and capital efficiency, with a recycle ratio of ~4.0x.