Grupo Financiero Banorte (GFNORTEO) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Core business delivered strong results and margin expansion, but was offset by Bineo's impairment (Ps 1.3 billion) and higher provisioning from an isolated commercial loan case, with no systemic risk identified.

• Net income for 3Q25 was Ps 13.01 billion, down 11% sequentially and 9% year-over-year, while 9M25 net income rose 1% year-over-year to Ps 42.91 billion.

• ROE for 3Q25 was 20.1% and 22.3% for 9M25, in line with full-year guidance.

• Group NIM rose to 6.3% in 3Q25, with Bank NIM at 6.9%.

• The group celebrated its 125th anniversary, highlighting digital transformation and customer-centric strategies.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income for 3Q25 was Ps 36.62 billion, up 2% sequentially and year-over-year; non-interest income surged 28% sequentially and 72% year-over-year for 9M25.

• Margins for both group and bank expanded, supported by balance sheet sensitivity management and cost of fund optimization.

• Provisions rose 57% sequentially and 77% year-over-year in 3Q25, mainly due to the isolated commercial loan case.

• Insurance business net income grew 20% in the first nine months, with ROE at 68%.

• Loan portfolio (excluding government) grew 10% year-over-year, led by consumer lending; auto loans up 31%, credit cards up 16%, payroll loans up 10%, mortgages up 8%.

• NPL ratio increased to 1.4% (up 25bps QoQ), cost of risk reached 2.7% in 3Q25 due to the isolated commercial case.

Outlook and guidance

• Positive trends expected to continue in Q4, with usual seasonal dynamics and focus on margin expansion, digital transformation, and disciplined expense control.

• 2025 guidance revised for Bineo's impairment: loan growth (ex-gov) 6–11%, NIM 6.2–6.5%, cost of risk 1.9–2.0%, ROE 22–23%.

• GDP growth forecast for Mexico: 0.5% in 2025, rebounding to 1.8% in 2026, driven by consumption, tourism, and investment.

• Monetary policy: two 25bp rate cuts expected in 2025, two more in 2026, with rates stabilizing at 6.5%.

• Loan growth guidance (excluding government) remains close to double digits.

• Net interest margin for the group expected above previous guidance; bank NIM at 6.7–6.9%.

• Efficiency ratio targeted at 35.5–36.9%, trending toward 34%.

• Cost of risk guidance maintained at 1.8–2%.

• ROE guidance: group 22–23%, bank 28–29%.