Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved strong operational and financial recovery in 2024, with gross average production of 40,689 barrels per day, up 86% year-over-year, and a full year of local sales.

• Returned to free cash flow generation of USD 65.4 million and resumed shareholder distributions totaling USD 45 million in 2024.

• Maintained a top quartile total shareholder return of 24% versus peers, supported by disciplined capital and cost management.

• Maintained a strong safety record with zero lost-time incidents, extending to over 790 days as of March 2025.

• Focused on unlocking significant upside from potential export restart, with ongoing discussions with Kurdistan and Iraqi governments.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 52% to USD 76.1 million in 2024, driven by higher production volumes despite a lower realized price of USD 26.8 per barrel.

• Free cash flow reached USD 65.4 million, reversing a USD 13 million outflow in 2023.

• Net capex dropped 69% to USD 18 million, the lowest since 2017.

• Cash balance increased from USD 82 million at end-2023 to USD 102 million at end-2024, and further to USD 115 million by March 2025.

• Profit after tax was USD 7.2 million, reversing a loss of USD 11.5 million in 2023.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 gross average production guidance reiterated at 40,000–45,000 barrels per day, subject to stable local demand.

• Net capex for 2025 expected between USD 25–30 million, with a focus on safety upgrades and production optimization.

• Operating costs for 2025 guided at USD 50–55 million, with G&A expenses expected to fall below USD 10 million.

• USD 25 million interim dividend declared for April 2025, with commitment to ongoing shareholder returns.

• Ready to restart exports quickly if agreements are reached, with potential for significant cash flow upside.