Handelsbanken (SHB) Pre-close call summary

Trading performance and revenue trends

• Mortgage lending growth in Sweden has been slow, and corporate lending volumes have decreased since Q2; Norway continues to see declines, though the trend is leveling out.

• Positive lending trends continue in the UK and the Netherlands for both household and corporate segments.

• Net interest income (NII) faces headwinds from higher funding costs and negative lag effects in corporate lending repricing, similar to Q2.

• Q3 benefits from one additional day, contributing SEK 20–30 million per day to NII; weaker SEK provides a tailwind to sequential NII.

• Savings-related fees are expected to improve as daily average stock market indices are up in Q3 versus Q2.

Profitability and margins

• Margins and funding volatility continue, with a negative sequential effect of around SEK 250 million in Q2, half attributed to higher funding costs and lag in corporate lending repricing.

• NFT income remains minor and stable, averaging SEK 500–600 million per quarter, with occasional volatility due to market factors.

Balance sheet and liquidity position

• CET1 ratio in Q2 was 17.2%, 250 basis points above SREP, maintaining the target range of 100–300 basis points above SREP.

• New Pillar 2 models for corporate exposures approved, expected to have a net neutral effect on capital requirements in Q3.

• Risk exposure amount for sovereign, central bank, and municipality exposures to decrease by SEK 1.3 billion as they move to standardized models in Q3.