Holmen (HOLM) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Operating profit for Q3-25 reached SEK 1,166 million, showing improvement over previous quarters despite challenging market conditions, while Jan–Sep 2025 operating profit was SEK 2,531 million, down from SEK 3,005 million year-over-year due to maintenance shutdowns and low electricity prices in northern Sweden.

• Return on capital employed was 15% for the first nine months, reflecting solid capital efficiency and above industry average.

• Profit after tax for Jan–Sep was SEK 2,298 million, nearly flat year-over-year, supported by a SEK 395 million positive tax effect from a court ruling.

• Weak demand in construction and cautious consumer behavior impacted capacity utilization, especially in Wood Products and Renewable Energy, while Board and Paper performed well.

Financial highlights

• Net sales for Jan–Sep 2025 were SEK 16,873 million, compared to SEK 17,246 million year-over-year.

• EBITDA for Jan–Sep was SEK 3,633 million, down from SEK 4,050 million year-over-year.

• Over SEK 3.2 billion distributed via dividends and buybacks from January to September 2025; SEK 13 billion over five years.

• Debt/equity ratio at 10% as of 30 September 2025, remaining low and stable over five years.

• Cash flow from operating activities before working capital changes was SEK 2,585 million for Jan–Sep.

Outlook and guidance

• Market conditions remain challenging, with continued price pressure and weak demand in construction and paper markets expected in Q4.

• Pulpwood prices are declining, but cost benefits will reach the P&L with a six-month lag; sawlog prices remain high and stable.

• Long-term, low electricity prices in northern Sweden are anticipated to attract new electricity-intensive industries.

• No significant improvement in demand anticipated; overcapacity remains a challenge, especially in board.