HP (HPQ) 2026 Evercore Global TMT Conference summary

Financial performance and outlook

• Reported a strong quarter with earnings above guidance and over 20% year-over-year growth; full-year guidance raised to $290-$310 million.

• Free cash flow guidance for the year is $2.8-$3 billion, with a stronger back half expected due to seasonal trends and PSG business strength.

• Margins in PSG expected to trough in Q4 and improve into FY 2027, driven by mitigation efforts and a higher mix of premium AI PCs.

• Print margins to be at the lower end of the long-term range in Q3 due to seasonality, oil prices, and strategic unit placements, but expected to recover in Q4.

• Supplies revenue expected to decline low single digits this year and low to mid single digits longer term, offset by growth in subscriptions and industrial/3D segments.

Strategic initiatives and product developments

• Announced new laptops, desktops, and workstations supporting NVIDIA’s RTX Spark AI platform, emphasizing AI at the edge.

• AI PCs now represent 44% of shipments, expected to reach 60%-70% by FY 2027, with higher ASPs and margins than traditional PCs.

• Four-pillar mitigation playbook includes securing supply, operational improvements, cost reductions (including AI-driven transformation and early retirement), and repricing.

• AI-enabled savings program targets $1 billion in gross annual run rate savings by FY 2028, leveraging automation and productivity improvements across the company.

• Attach business, including Poly accessories, is a focus area for higher-margin growth, supported by new sales incentives.

Market and competitive landscape

• PC industry TAM units expected to decline in the high teens for the rest of the year, but revenue growth to continue at a moderated pace.

• Premium segment less price sensitive, with increased focus on AI PCs and higher ASPs.

• Gained share in the premium PC space last quarter and aims to regain overall share through improved demand-supply alignment.

• Print hardware market remains competitive, especially with Japanese competitors benefiting from a weaker yen, but office decline is slowing and usage trends are stable.