ICL Group (ICL) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY23 sales were $7.536B and adjusted EBITDA was $1.754B, down from $10.015B and $4.007B in FY22; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.55 vs. $1.82.

• Operating cash flow was $1.595B and free cash flow was $818M; production continued despite war-related disruptions and challenging markets.

Financial highlights

• FY23 net income was $687M, including $647M attributable to shareholders; adjusted net income was $715M.

• FY23 diluted EPS was $0.50 and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.55, vs. $1.67 and $1.82 in FY22.

• 4Q23 sales were $1.690B and adjusted EBITDA was $357M, vs. $2.091B and $698M in 4Q22; net income was $84M, including $67M attributable to shareholders.

• FY23 operating cash flow was $1.595B and free cash flow was $818M, vs. $2.025B and $1.315B in FY22; 4Q23 operating cash flow was $415M and free cash flow $160M.

Outlook and guidance

• FY24 specialties-driven adjusted EBITDA guidance is $0.7B–$0.9B; potash sales volume guidance is 4.6M–4.9M metric tons.

• Each $20 change in average potash CIF price from current levels is expected to affect annual EBITDA by $100M; expected tax rate is ~30%.

• 4Q23 potash EBITDA is expected to indicate EBITDA at current prices; efficiency savings are expected to continue into 2024, amid improving demand and ongoing challenges.