Imperial Oil (IMO) Guidance summary

Opening remarks and agenda

• Management introduced 2025 corporate guidance with senior leadership present, focusing on financial and operational performance, and referencing non-GAAP measures and risk factors in supporting documents.

• The agenda included a review of 2025 guidance, a Q&A session, and a preview of further strategic updates at the upcoming April Investor Day.

• 2025 plan aims for stronger operating performance, higher volumes, and lower unit cash costs at Kearl and Cold Lake.

• Focus remains on maximizing value from existing assets and advancing high-value growth opportunities while delivering strong shareholder returns.

Guidance on key objectives

• 2025 upstream production guidance set at 433,000–456,000 oil-equivalent bbl/day, with Kearl targeted above 300,000 bbl/day and Cold Lake above 165,000 bbl/day over the next 2–3 years.

• Downstream refinery throughput projected at 405,000–415,000 bbl/day with utilization rates of 94%–96%.

• Capital and exploration expenditures forecasted at $1.9–$2.1 billion for 2025, up modestly from 2024.

• Unit cash cost targets: Kearl at $18/bbl and Cold Lake at $13/bbl.

• Planned turnarounds in 2025 at Kearl, Cold Lake, Syncrude, Strathcona, Nanticoke, and Sarnia refineries, with lower expected impacts than 2024.

Market trends and strategic opportunities

• Confident in global oil demand growth and Canada’s ability to supply, with no near-term concerns about pipeline egress.

• Strathcona Renewable Diesel project start-up expected mid-2025, adding 20,000 bbl/day and supporting lower-carbon offerings.

• Free cash flow expected to remain robust across a range of WTI price scenarios, supporting continued dividends and share repurchases.

• Corporate break-even outlook remains low, with US$25/bbl WTI for cash break-even and US$35/bbl WTI covering dividends and sustaining capital.

• Ongoing focus on low-cost, efficient production to remain competitive regardless of external market or political risks.